AUDCHF Macro Bias and Analysis
Score as of 11 October 2026 · Mild Bear · Low conviction
-1 — Bearish
AUDCHF currently reads mild bear at -1 with low conviction, calculated on 11 October 2026. The dominant input is policy rates at +2, which favours the Australian dollar. Working against it, retail sales sits at -2. Every scored input has a current reading.
Three-block breakdown
| Block | Value | Inputs | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | -1 | GDP, CPI, policy rates, retail sales, unemployment, momentum | The macro block nets -1, leaning towards the Swiss franc. |
| Sentiment | -1 | COT positioning, retail crowd positioning | The sentiment block nets -1, leaning towards the Swiss franc. |
| Seasonality | +1 | historical monthly tendency | The seasonality block nets +1, leaning towards the Australian dollar. |
All nine signals for AUDCHF
GDP — 0
0 — Latest annual growth readings is balanced between the two currencies.
CPI (inflation) — +2
+2 — Headline inflation favours the Australian dollar — hotter prices imply a firmer policy path for that side.
Policy rates — +2
+2 — The central-bank policy-rate differential favours the Australian dollar, before accounting for expected changes.
Retail sales — -2
-2 — Consumer demand, measured through retail sales, favours the Swiss franc.
Unemployment — -1
-1 — Labour-market slack favours the Swiss franc — a lower jobless rate scores positively.
Momentum — -2
-2 — Recent releases against forecast favours the Swiss franc — this measures surprise, not level.
COT positioning — -2
-2 — CFTC Commitments of Traders futures positioning favours the Swiss franc, read as institutional net exposure.
Retail sentiment — +1
+1 — Crowd positioning, read contrarian, favours the Australian dollar.
Seasonality — +1
+1 — The historical tendency for this month favours the Australian dollar.
October seasonality
In October, AUDCHF has averaged +0.5% over the last two years and +0.4% over five years. The two horizons agree, which makes the tendency more usable as a tiebreaker.
Most recent releases for AUD and CHF
- CHF SECO Consumer Climate released 9 Oct 2026: actual -36, forecast -32, previous -33.
- AUD MI Inflation Expectations released 8 Oct 2026: actual 5.3, forecast not published, previous 4.9.
- CHF Foreign Currency Reserves released 7 Oct 2026: actual 770, forecast not published, previous 770.
How this score is built
- Scores range from -10 to +10. Positive means the Australian dollar is favoured over the Swiss franc; negative means the reverse.
- Nine independent inputs feed three conviction blocks: macro, sentiment and seasonality. Conviction rises when blocks agree, not when one input is extreme.
- This is a macro bias and pair-selection read. It is not a trade entry, an execution signal, or investment advice.