AUDUSD Macro Bias and Analysis
Score as of 21 October 2026 · Neutral · High conviction
0 — Neutral
AUDUSD currently reads neutral at 0 with high conviction, calculated on 21 October 2026. The dominant input is COT positioning at -2, which favours the US dollar. Working against it, policy rates sits at +1. One of the nine inputs (GDP) has no current reading and is stated as absent below rather than counted as zero.
Three-block breakdown
| Block | Value | Inputs | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | 0 | GDP, CPI, policy rates, retail sales, unemployment, momentum | The macro block nets out flat — the inputs inside it cancel. |
| Sentiment | -1 | COT positioning, retail crowd positioning | The sentiment block nets -1, leaning towards the US dollar. |
| Seasonality | +1 | historical monthly tendency | The seasonality block nets +1, leaning towards the Australian dollar. |
All nine signals for AUDUSD
GDP — not available
No comparable GDP release for both currencies inside the current scoring window, so growth is excluded from this score.
CPI (inflation) — 0
0 — Headline inflation is balanced between the two currencies — hotter prices imply a firmer policy path for that side.
Policy rates — +1
+1 — The central-bank policy-rate differential favours the Australian dollar, before accounting for expected changes.
Retail sales — 0
0 — Consumer demand, measured through retail sales, is balanced between the two currencies.
Unemployment — +1
+1 — Labour-market slack favours the Australian dollar — a lower jobless rate scores positively.
Momentum — -2
-2 — Recent releases against forecast favours the US dollar — this measures surprise, not level.
COT positioning — -2
-2 — CFTC Commitments of Traders futures positioning favours the US dollar, read as institutional net exposure.
Retail sentiment — +1
+1 — Crowd positioning, read contrarian, favours the Australian dollar.
Seasonality — +1
+1 — The historical tendency for this month favours the Australian dollar.
October seasonality
In October, AUDUSD has averaged +0.6% over the last two years and +0.4% over five years. The two horizons agree, which makes the tendency more usable as a tiebreaker.
Most recent releases for AUD and USD
- USD Pending Home Sales m/m released 20 Oct 2026: actual -7.3, forecast -0.6, previous 0.3.
- USD Housing Starts released 20 Oct 2026: actual 1.22, forecast 1.3, previous 1.29.
- USD Building Permits released 20 Oct 2026: actual 1.4, forecast 1.39, previous 1.4.
How this score is built
- Scores range from -10 to +10. Positive means the Australian dollar is favoured over the US dollar; negative means the reverse.
- Nine independent inputs feed three conviction blocks: macro, sentiment and seasonality. Conviction rises when blocks agree, not when one input is extreme.
- This is a macro bias and pair-selection read. It is not a trade entry, an execution signal, or investment advice.