CADCHF Macro Bias and Analysis
Score as of 21 October 2026 · Bearish · Low conviction
-3 — Bearish
CADCHF currently reads bearish at -3 with low conviction, calculated on 21 October 2026. The dominant input is policy rates at +2, which favours the Canadian dollar. Working against it, GDP sits at -2. Every scored input has a current reading.
Three-block breakdown
| Block | Value | Inputs | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | -3 | GDP, CPI, policy rates, retail sales, unemployment, momentum | The macro block nets -3, leaning towards the Swiss franc. |
| Sentiment | -3 | COT positioning, retail crowd positioning | The sentiment block nets -3, leaning towards the Swiss franc. |
| Seasonality | 0 | historical monthly tendency | The seasonality block nets out flat — the inputs inside it cancel. |
All nine signals for CADCHF
GDP — -2
-2 — Latest annual growth readings favours the Swiss franc by 2 points.
CPI (inflation) — +2
+2 — Headline inflation favours the Canadian dollar — hotter prices imply a firmer policy path for that side.
Policy rates — +2
+2 — The central-bank policy-rate differential favours the Canadian dollar, before accounting for expected changes.
Retail sales — -2
-2 — Consumer demand, measured through retail sales, favours the Swiss franc.
Unemployment — -1
-1 — Labour-market slack favours the Swiss franc — a lower jobless rate scores positively.
Momentum — -2
-2 — Recent releases against forecast favours the Swiss franc — this measures surprise, not level.
COT positioning — -2
-2 — CFTC Commitments of Traders futures positioning favours the Swiss franc, read as institutional net exposure.
Retail sentiment — -1
-1 — Crowd positioning, read contrarian, favours the Swiss franc.
Seasonality — 0
0 — The historical tendency for this month is balanced between the two currencies.
October seasonality
In October, CADCHF has averaged +0.2% over the last two years and +0.2% over five years. The two horizons agree, which makes the tendency more usable as a tiebreaker.
Most recent releases for CAD and CHF
- CAD Median CPI y/y released 19 Oct 2026: actual 1.9, forecast 2, previous 2.
- CAD CPI m/m released 19 Oct 2026: actual 0.1, forecast 0.2, previous -0.1.
- CAD Core CPI m/m released 19 Oct 2026: actual 0, forecast not published, previous 0.1.
How this score is built
- Scores range from -10 to +10. Positive means the Canadian dollar is favoured over the Swiss franc; negative means the reverse.
- Nine independent inputs feed three conviction blocks: macro, sentiment and seasonality. Conviction rises when blocks agree, not when one input is extreme.
- This is a macro bias and pair-selection read. It is not a trade entry, an execution signal, or investment advice.