CADJPY Macro Bias and Analysis
Score as of 21 October 2026 · Mild Bull · Low conviction
+1 — Bullish
CADJPY currently reads mild bull at +1 with low conviction, calculated on 21 October 2026. The dominant input is CPI at +2, which favours the Canadian dollar. Working against it, momentum sits at -2. One of the nine inputs (GDP) has no current reading and is stated as absent below rather than counted as zero.
Three-block breakdown
| Block | Value | Inputs | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | +1 | GDP, CPI, policy rates, retail sales, unemployment, momentum | The macro block nets +1, leaning towards the Canadian dollar. |
| Sentiment | -2 | COT positioning, retail crowd positioning | The sentiment block nets -2, leaning towards the Japanese yen. |
| Seasonality | 0 | historical monthly tendency | The seasonality block nets out flat — the inputs inside it cancel. |
All nine signals for CADJPY
GDP — not available
No comparable GDP release for both currencies inside the current scoring window, so growth is excluded from this score.
CPI (inflation) — +2
+2 — Headline inflation favours the Canadian dollar — hotter prices imply a firmer policy path for that side.
Policy rates — +1
+1 — The central-bank policy-rate differential favours the Canadian dollar, before accounting for expected changes.
Retail sales — 0
0 — Consumer demand, measured through retail sales, is balanced between the two currencies.
Unemployment — 0
0 — Labour-market slack is balanced between the two currencies — a lower jobless rate scores positively.
Momentum — -2
-2 — Recent releases against forecast favours the Japanese yen — this measures surprise, not level.
COT positioning — -1
-1 — CFTC Commitments of Traders futures positioning favours the Japanese yen, read as institutional net exposure.
Retail sentiment — -1
-1 — Crowd positioning, read contrarian, favours the Japanese yen.
Seasonality — 0
0 — The historical tendency for this month is balanced between the two currencies.
October seasonality
In October, CADJPY has averaged +0.1% over the last two years and +0.1% over five years. The two horizons agree, which makes the tendency more usable as a tiebreaker.
Most recent releases for CAD and JPY
- JPY Trade Balance released 20 Oct 2026: actual -0.7, forecast -0.26, previous -0.8.
- CAD Median CPI y/y released 19 Oct 2026: actual 1.9, forecast 2, previous 2.
- CAD CPI m/m released 19 Oct 2026: actual 0.1, forecast 0.2, previous -0.1.
How this score is built
- Scores range from -10 to +10. Positive means the Canadian dollar is favoured over the Japanese yen; negative means the reverse.
- Nine independent inputs feed three conviction blocks: macro, sentiment and seasonality. Conviction rises when blocks agree, not when one input is extreme.
- This is a macro bias and pair-selection read. It is not a trade entry, an execution signal, or investment advice.