CADJPY Macro Bias and Analysis
Score as of 7 September 2026 · Bearish · Medium conviction
-3 — Bearish
CADJPY currently reads bearish at -3 with medium conviction, calculated on 7 September 2026. The dominant input is CPI at -2, which favours the Japanese yen. Working against it, policy rates sits at +1. One of the nine inputs (GDP) has no current reading and is stated as absent below rather than counted as zero.
Three-block breakdown
| Block | Value | Inputs | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | -3 | GDP, CPI, policy rates, retail sales, unemployment, momentum | The macro block nets -3, leaning towards the Japanese yen. |
| Sentiment | -1 | COT positioning, retail crowd positioning | The sentiment block nets -1, leaning towards the Japanese yen. |
| Seasonality | 0 | historical monthly tendency | The seasonality block nets out flat — the inputs inside it cancel. |
All nine signals for CADJPY
GDP — not available
No comparable GDP release for both currencies inside the current scoring window, so growth is excluded from this score.
CPI (inflation) — -2
-2 — Headline inflation favours the Japanese yen — hotter prices imply a firmer policy path for that side.
Policy rates — +1
+1 — The central-bank policy-rate differential favours the Canadian dollar, before accounting for expected changes.
Retail sales — -2
-2 — Consumer demand, measured through retail sales, favours the Japanese yen.
Unemployment — 0
0 — Labour-market slack is balanced between the two currencies — a lower jobless rate scores positively.
Momentum — 0
0 — Recent releases against forecast is balanced between the two currencies — this measures surprise, not level.
COT positioning — +1
+1 — CFTC Commitments of Traders futures positioning favours the Canadian dollar, read as institutional net exposure.
Retail sentiment — -2
-2 — Crowd positioning, read contrarian, favours the Japanese yen.
Seasonality — 0
0 — The historical tendency for this month is balanced between the two currencies.
September seasonality
In September, CADJPY has averaged +0.2% over the last two years and 0% over five years. The two horizons disagree, so treat the seasonal read as weak for this month.
Most recent releases for CAD and JPY
- CAD Ivey PMI released 4 Sept 2026: actual 64.3, forecast 56.2, previous 55.1.
- CAD Unemployment Rate released 4 Sept 2026: actual 6.4, forecast 6.4, previous 6.4.
- CAD Employment Change released 4 Sept 2026: actual -41.7, forecast 15.1, previous 75.1.
How this score is built
- Scores range from -10 to +10. Positive means the Canadian dollar is favoured over the Japanese yen; negative means the reverse.
- Nine independent inputs feed three conviction blocks: macro, sentiment and seasonality. Conviction rises when blocks agree, not when one input is extreme.
- This is a macro bias and pair-selection read. It is not a trade entry, an execution signal, or investment advice.