CHFJPY Macro Bias and Analysis
Score as of 21 October 2026 · Bullish · Low conviction
+2 — Bullish
CHFJPY currently reads bullish at +2 with low conviction, calculated on 21 October 2026. The dominant input is retail sales at +2, which favours the Swiss franc. Working against it, policy rates sits at -1. One of the nine inputs (GDP) has no current reading and is stated as absent below rather than counted as zero.
Three-block breakdown
| Block | Value | Inputs | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | +2 | GDP, CPI, policy rates, retail sales, unemployment, momentum | The macro block nets +2, leaning towards the Swiss franc. |
| Sentiment | -2 | COT positioning, retail crowd positioning | The sentiment block nets -2, leaning towards the Japanese yen. |
| Seasonality | 0 | historical monthly tendency | The seasonality block nets out flat — the inputs inside it cancel. |
All nine signals for CHFJPY
GDP — not available
No comparable GDP release for both currencies inside the current scoring window, so growth is excluded from this score.
CPI (inflation) — 0
0 — Headline inflation is balanced between the two currencies — hotter prices imply a firmer policy path for that side.
Policy rates — -1
-1 — The central-bank policy-rate differential favours the Japanese yen, before accounting for expected changes.
Retail sales — +2
+2 — Consumer demand, measured through retail sales, favours the Swiss franc.
Unemployment — +1
+1 — Labour-market slack favours the Swiss franc — a lower jobless rate scores positively.
Momentum — 0
0 — Recent releases against forecast is balanced between the two currencies — this measures surprise, not level.
COT positioning — -1
-1 — CFTC Commitments of Traders futures positioning favours the Japanese yen, read as institutional net exposure.
Retail sentiment — -1
-1 — Crowd positioning, read contrarian, favours the Japanese yen.
Seasonality — 0
0 — The historical tendency for this month is balanced between the two currencies.
October seasonality
In October, CHFJPY has averaged -0.1% over the last two years and -0.1% over five years. The two horizons agree, which makes the tendency more usable as a tiebreaker.
Most recent releases for CHF and JPY
- JPY Trade Balance released 20 Oct 2026: actual -0.7, forecast -0.26, previous -0.8.
- JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m released 19 Oct 2026: actual -0.1, forecast -0.3, previous 0.2.
- CHF PPI m/m released 15 Oct 2026: actual 0.3, forecast 0.6, previous 0.7.
How this score is built
- Scores range from -10 to +10. Positive means the Swiss franc is favoured over the Japanese yen; negative means the reverse.
- Nine independent inputs feed three conviction blocks: macro, sentiment and seasonality. Conviction rises when blocks agree, not when one input is extreme.
- This is a macro bias and pair-selection read. It is not a trade entry, an execution signal, or investment advice.