NZDJPY Macro Bias and Analysis
Score as of 7 September 2026 · Strong Bull · Low conviction
+4 — Bullish
NZDJPY currently reads strong bull at +4 with low conviction, calculated on 7 September 2026. The dominant input is policy rates at +2, which favours the New Zealand dollar. Working against it, retail sentiment sits at -2. One of the nine inputs (CPI) has no current reading and is stated as absent below rather than counted as zero.
Three-block breakdown
| Block | Value | Inputs | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | +4 | GDP, CPI, policy rates, retail sales, unemployment, momentum | The macro block nets +4, leaning towards the New Zealand dollar. |
| Sentiment | -1 | COT positioning, retail crowd positioning | The sentiment block nets -1, leaning towards the Japanese yen. |
| Seasonality | +1 | historical monthly tendency | The seasonality block nets +1, leaning towards the New Zealand dollar. |
All nine signals for NZDJPY
GDP — +2
+2 — Latest annual growth readings favours the New Zealand dollar by 2 points.
CPI (inflation) — not available
No comparable CPI release for both currencies inside the current scoring window, so inflation is excluded from this score.
Policy rates — +2
+2 — The central-bank policy-rate differential favours the New Zealand dollar, before accounting for expected changes.
Retail sales — 0
0 — Consumer demand, measured through retail sales, is balanced between the two currencies.
Unemployment — -1
-1 — Labour-market slack favours the Japanese yen — a lower jobless rate scores positively.
Momentum — +1
+1 — Recent releases against forecast favours the New Zealand dollar — this measures surprise, not level.
COT positioning — +1
+1 — CFTC Commitments of Traders futures positioning favours the New Zealand dollar, read as institutional net exposure.
Retail sentiment — -2
-2 — Crowd positioning, read contrarian, favours the Japanese yen.
Seasonality — +1
+1 — The historical tendency for this month favours the New Zealand dollar.
September seasonality
In September, NZDJPY has averaged +0.4% over the last two years and +0.2% over five years. The two horizons agree, which makes the tendency more usable as a tiebreaker.
Most recent releases for NZD and JPY
- NZD Official Cash Rate released 2 Sept 2026: actual 2.75, forecast 2.75, previous 2.5.
- JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y released 27 Aug 2026: actual 1.8, forecast 1.8, previous 1.7.
- JPY Prelim GDP q/q released 17 Aug 2026: actual 0.3, forecast not published, previous 0.2.
How this score is built
- Scores range from -10 to +10. Positive means the New Zealand dollar is favoured over the Japanese yen; negative means the reverse.
- Nine independent inputs feed three conviction blocks: macro, sentiment and seasonality. Conviction rises when blocks agree, not when one input is extreme.
- This is a macro bias and pair-selection read. It is not a trade entry, an execution signal, or investment advice.