USDCAD Macro Bias and Analysis
Score as of 7 September 2026 · Bullish · Low conviction
+3 — Bullish
USDCAD currently reads bullish at +3 with low conviction, calculated on 7 September 2026. The dominant input is retail sales at +2, which favours the US dollar. Working against it, retail sentiment sits at -1. Every scored input has a current reading.
Three-block breakdown
| Block | Value | Inputs | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | +3 | GDP, CPI, policy rates, retail sales, unemployment, momentum | The macro block nets +3, leaning towards the US dollar. |
| Sentiment | 0 | COT positioning, retail crowd positioning | The sentiment block nets out flat — the inputs inside it cancel. |
| Seasonality | +1 | historical monthly tendency | The seasonality block nets +1, leaning towards the US dollar. |
All nine signals for USDCAD
GDP — 0
0 — Latest annual growth readings is balanced between the two currencies.
CPI (inflation) — 0
0 — Headline inflation is balanced between the two currencies — hotter prices imply a firmer policy path for that side.
Policy rates — +1
+1 — The central-bank policy-rate differential favours the US dollar, before accounting for expected changes.
Retail sales — +2
+2 — Consumer demand, measured through retail sales, favours the US dollar.
Unemployment — 0
0 — Labour-market slack is balanced between the two currencies — a lower jobless rate scores positively.
Momentum — 0
0 — Recent releases against forecast is balanced between the two currencies — this measures surprise, not level.
COT positioning — +1
+1 — CFTC Commitments of Traders futures positioning favours the US dollar, read as institutional net exposure.
Retail sentiment — -1
-1 — Crowd positioning, read contrarian, favours the Canadian dollar.
Seasonality — +1
+1 — The historical tendency for this month favours the US dollar.
September seasonality
In September, USDCAD has averaged +0.6% over the last two years and +0.5% over five years. The two horizons agree, which makes the tendency more usable as a tiebreaker.
Most recent releases for USD and CAD
- CAD Ivey PMI released 4 Sept 2026: actual 64.3, forecast 56.2, previous 55.1.
- USD Unemployment Rate released 4 Sept 2026: actual 4.1, forecast 4.1, previous 4.1.
- USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m released 4 Sept 2026: actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, previous 0.2.
How this score is built
- Scores range from -10 to +10. Positive means the US dollar is favoured over the Canadian dollar; negative means the reverse.
- Nine independent inputs feed three conviction blocks: macro, sentiment and seasonality. Conviction rises when blocks agree, not when one input is extreme.
- This is a macro bias and pair-selection read. It is not a trade entry, an execution signal, or investment advice.