StraviaX Weekly Report
Forex Macro Bias Report — Week of 24 May 2026
Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 24 May 2026.
Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.
| Pair | Score | Bias | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | -3 | Bearish | Interest Rates: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPUSD | -11 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDJPY | +14 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| USDCHF | +4 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDUSD | -1 | Mild Bear | Unemployment Rate: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDCAD | +15 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDUSD | -5 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURGBP | +11 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURJPY | +8 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURCHF | +6 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURAUD | -4 | Bearish | Interest Rates: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURCAD | +5 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURNZD | +1 | Mild Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPJPY | -2 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPCHF | -8 | Strong Bear | Unemployment Rate: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPAUD | -9 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPCAD | -2 | Bearish | Interest Rates: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPNZD | -9 | Strong Bear | Interest Rates: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDJPY | +10 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDCHF | +7 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDCAD | +9 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDNZD | +7 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDJPY | +7 | Strong Bull | Unemployment Rate: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDCHF | +4 | Strong Bull | Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDCAD | +5 | Strong Bull | Unemployment Rate: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CADJPY | +3 | Bullish | Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CADCHF | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CHFJPY | +2 | Bullish | Unemployment Rate: strongly bullish (+2) |
EURUSD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rates: strongly bearish (-2)
- Services PMI: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Manufacturing PMI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bullish (+2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for EURUSD.
GBPUSD — Strong Bear (-11)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rates: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): bullish (+1)
May seasonality is historically bearish for GBPUSD — conflicts with bullish bias.
USDJPY — Strong Bull (+14)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
May seasonality is historically bullish for USDJPY — aligns with overall bias.
USDCHF — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Manufacturing PMI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment Rate: bearish (-1)
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bearish (-2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCHF.
AUDUSD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: bearish (-1)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: bullish (+1)
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bullish (+2)
May seasonality is historically bearish for AUDUSD — conflicts with bullish bias.
USDCAD — Strong Bull (+15)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
May has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCAD.
NZDUSD — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bearish (-2)
- COT Highs/Lows: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment Rate: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
May seasonality is historically bearish for NZDUSD — conflicts with bullish bias.
EURGBP — Strong Bull (+11)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
May has no strong seasonal pattern for EURGBP.
EURJPY — Strong Bull (+8)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: bearish (-1)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for EURJPY.
EURCHF — Strong Bull (+6)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- COT Highs/Lows: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for EURCHF.
EURAUD — Bearish (-4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rates: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment Rate: bullish (+1)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for EURAUD.
EURCAD — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment Rate: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for EURCAD.
EURNZD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bullish (+2)
- COT Highs/Lows: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for EURNZD.
GBPJPY — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI YoY: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): bullish (+1)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for GBPJPY.
GBPCHF — Strong Bear (-8)
Key drivers
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- COT Highs/Lows: bullish (+1)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for GBPCHF.
GBPAUD — Strong Bear (-9)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rates: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment Rate: bullish (+1)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for GBPAUD.
GBPCAD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rates: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment Rate: bullish (+1)
- GDP: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for GBPCAD.
GBPNZD — Strong Bear (-9)
Key drivers
- Interest Rates: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Highs/Lows: bullish (+1)
- GDP: bullish (+1)
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bullish (+2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for GBPNZD.
AUDJPY — Strong Bull (+10)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment Rate: bearish (-1)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for AUDJPY.
AUDCHF — Strong Bull (+7)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- COT Highs/Lows: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bearish (-2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for AUDCHF.
AUDCAD — Strong Bull (+9)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
May has no strong seasonal pattern for AUDCAD.
AUDNZD — Strong Bull (+7)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2)
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bearish (-2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for AUDNZD.
NZDJPY — Strong Bull (+7)
Key drivers
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- COT Highs/Lows: bearish (-1)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDJPY.
NZDCHF — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI YoY: bearish (-1)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDCHF.
NZDCAD — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- COT Highs/Lows: bearish (-1)
- CPI YoY: strongly bearish (-2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDCAD.
CADJPY — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rates: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment Rate: bearish (-1)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for CADJPY.
CADCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rates: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- COT Highs/Lows: bullish (+1)
- CPI YoY: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for CADCHF.
CHFJPY — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- Unemployment Rate: strongly bullish (+2)
- Consumer Confidence: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI YoY: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (Contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- COT Highs/Lows: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rates: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
May has no strong seasonal pattern for CHFJPY.