StraviaX Weekly Report
Forex Macro Bias Report — Week of 29 June 2026
Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 29 June 2026.
Data freshness — Scores calculated 2026-07-05T12:10:23.142+00:00 · COT report 2026-06-23 · Retail sentiment snapshot 2026-06-30 · Central bank rates verified 2026-06-23T22:07:30.409157+00:00.
Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.
| Pair | Score | Bias | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | -9 | Strong Bear | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| EURCAD | -8 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURCHF | -7 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURAUD | -6 | Strong Bear | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURNZD | -6 | Strong Bear | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDUSD | -5 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURJPY | -5 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDJPY | -5 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCHF | -5 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPUSD | -4 | Strong Bear | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDUSD | -3 | Bearish | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| EURGBP | -3 | Bearish | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| GBPCHF | -3 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPNZD | -3 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDCAD | -3 | Bearish | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDCAD | +2 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| GBPJPY | -2 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDNZD | -2 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDJPY | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| USDCHF | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPAUD | -1 | Mild Bear | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| GBPCAD | -1 | Mild Bear | Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCAD | -1 | Mild Bear | Unemployment: bearish (-1) |
| NZDCHF | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CADJPY | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CHFJPY | -1 | Mild Bear | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| NZDJPY | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| CADCHF | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
EURUSD — Strong Bear (-9)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July has no strong seasonal pattern for EURUSD (avg -0.2%).
EURCAD — Strong Bear (-8)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for EURCAD.
EURCHF — Strong Bear (-7)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURCHF.
EURAUD — Strong Bear (-6)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURAUD.
EURNZD — Strong Bear (-6)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for EURNZD.
AUDUSD — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality is historically bullish for AUDUSD (avg +0.4%) — conflicts with the bearish bias.
EURJPY — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURJPY.
AUDJPY — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDJPY.
AUDCHF — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDCHF.
GBPUSD — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality is historically bearish for GBPUSD (avg -0.5%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
NZDUSD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
July has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDUSD (avg +0.2%).
EURGBP — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURGBP.
GBPCHF — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPCHF.
GBPNZD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPNZD.
NZDCAD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDCAD.
USDCAD — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
July has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCAD (avg +0.2%).
GBPJPY — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPJPY.
AUDNZD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDNZD.
USDJPY — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
July seasonality is historically bullish for USDJPY (avg +0.6%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
USDCHF — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
July has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCHF (avg +0.1%).
GBPAUD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPAUD.
GBPCAD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPCAD.
AUDCAD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDCAD.
NZDCHF — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDCHF.
CADJPY — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for CADJPY.
CHFJPY — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for CHFJPY.
NZDJPY — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDJPY.
CADCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for CADCHF.