StraviaX Weekly Report
Forex Macro Bias Report — Week of 6 July 2026
Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 6 July 2026.
Data freshness — Scores calculated 2026-07-12T09:00:10.858+00:00 · COT report 2026-07-07 · Retail sentiment snapshot 2026-07-12 · Central bank rates verified 2026-06-23T22:07:30.409157+00:00.
Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.
| Pair | Score | Bias | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | -9 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURCAD | -8 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURCHF | -7 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| EURAUD | -6 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| EURNZD | -6 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| AUDUSD | -5 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURJPY | -5 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| AUDJPY | -5 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| AUDCHF | -5 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| GBPUSD | -4 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| NZDUSD | -3 | Bearish | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURGBP | -3 | Bearish | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| GBPCHF | -3 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPNZD | -3 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDCAD | -3 | Bearish | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDCAD | +2 | Bullish | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPJPY | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| AUDNZD | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| USDJPY | +1 | Mild Bull | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| USDCHF | +1 | Mild Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPAUD | -1 | Mild Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| GBPCAD | -1 | Mild Bear | Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCAD | -1 | Mild Bear | Unemployment: bearish (-1) |
| NZDCHF | -1 | Mild Bear | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CADJPY | -1 | Mild Bear | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CHFJPY | -1 | Mild Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| NZDJPY | 0 | Neutral | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| CADCHF | 0 | Neutral | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
EURUSD — Strong Bear (-9)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July has no strong seasonal pattern for EURUSD (avg -0.2%).
EURCAD — Strong Bear (-8)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURCAD.
EURCHF — Strong Bear (-7)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURCHF.
EURAUD — Strong Bear (-6)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURAUD.
EURNZD — Strong Bear (-6)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for EURNZD.
AUDUSD — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality is historically bullish for AUDUSD (avg +0.4%) — conflicts with the bearish bias.
EURJPY — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURJPY.
AUDJPY — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDJPY.
AUDCHF — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDCHF.
GBPUSD — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality is historically bearish for GBPUSD (avg -0.5%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
NZDUSD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
July has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDUSD (avg +0.2%).
EURGBP — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURGBP.
GBPCHF — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPCHF.
GBPNZD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPNZD.
NZDCAD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDCAD.
USDCAD — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
July has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCAD (avg +0.2%).
GBPJPY — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPJPY.
AUDNZD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDNZD.
USDJPY — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
July seasonality is historically bullish for USDJPY (avg +0.6%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
USDCHF — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
July has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCHF (avg +0.1%).
GBPAUD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPAUD.
GBPCAD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPCAD.
AUDCAD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDCAD.
NZDCHF — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDCHF.
CADJPY — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for CADJPY.
CHFJPY — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for CHFJPY.
NZDJPY — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDJPY.
CADCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for CADCHF.