StraviaX Weekly Report
Forex Macro Bias Report — Week of 13 July 2026
Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 13 July 2026.
Data freshness — Scores calculated 2026-07-19T09:00:13.244+00:00 · COT report 2026-07-14 · Retail sentiment snapshot 2026-07-19 · Central bank rates verified 2026-07-17T12:26:19.314853+00:00 · 1 stale macro input(s) excluded.
Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.
| Pair | Score | Bias | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURNZD | -10 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURCAD | -8 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURUSD | -7 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| EURGBP | -7 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| EURJPY | -7 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURCHF | -7 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURAUD | -6 | Strong Bear | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDNZD | -6 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| AUDJPY | -5 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| AUDCHF | -5 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| AUDUSD | -3 | Bearish | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDUSD | +3 | Bullish | Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPJPY | +2 | Bullish | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| GBPCHF | -2 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCAD | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| NZDJPY | +2 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| USDJPY | -1 | Mild Bear | Unemployment: bearish (-1) |
| USDCHF | -1 | Mild Bear | CPI: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDCAD | +1 | Mild Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPAUD | +1 | Mild Bull | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPCAD | -1 | Mild Bear | Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPNZD | -1 | Mild Bear | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDCHF | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CHFJPY | -1 | Mild Bear | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| GBPUSD | 0 | Neutral | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| NZDCAD | 0 | Neutral | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| CADJPY | 0 | Neutral | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CADCHF | 0 | Neutral | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
EURNZD — Strong Bear (-10)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for EURNZD.
EURCAD — Strong Bear (-8)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURCAD.
EURUSD — Strong Bear (-7)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July has no strong seasonal pattern for EURUSD (avg -0.2%).
EURGBP — Strong Bear (-7)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURGBP.
EURJPY — Strong Bear (-7)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURJPY.
EURCHF — Strong Bear (-7)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURCHF.
EURAUD — Strong Bear (-6)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURAUD.
AUDNZD — Strong Bear (-6)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDNZD.
AUDJPY — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDJPY.
AUDCHF — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDCHF.
AUDUSD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality is historically bullish for AUDUSD (avg +0.4%) — conflicts with the bearish bias.
NZDUSD — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
July has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDUSD (avg +0.2%).
GBPJPY — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPJPY.
GBPCHF — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPCHF.
AUDCAD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDCAD.
NZDJPY — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDJPY.
USDJPY — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
July seasonality is historically bullish for USDJPY (avg +0.6%) — conflicts with the bearish bias.
USDCHF — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
July has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCHF (avg +0.1%).
USDCAD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
July has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCAD (avg +0.2%).
GBPAUD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPAUD.
GBPCAD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPCAD.
GBPNZD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPNZD.
NZDCHF — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDCHF.
CHFJPY — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for CHFJPY.
GBPUSD — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality is historically bearish for GBPUSD (avg -0.5%).
NZDCAD — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDCAD.
CADJPY — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for CADJPY.
CADCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for CADCHF.