StraviaX Weekly Report
Forex Macro Bias Report — Week of 20 July 2026
Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 20 July 2026.
Data freshness — Scores calculated 2026-07-26T09:00:13.12+00:00 · COT report 2026-07-21 · Retail sentiment snapshot 2026-07-26 · Central bank rates verified 2026-07-17T12:26:19.314853+00:00 · 1 stale macro input(s) excluded.
Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.
| Pair | Score | Bias | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURNZD | -10 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| NZDCHF | +8 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDCAD | +8 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| EURUSD | -7 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURAUD | -7 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| USDCAD | +5 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURJPY | -5 | Strong Bear | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPNZD | -5 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCAD | +5 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDNZD | -5 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| NZDJPY | +5 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| USDCHF | +4 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPAUD | -4 | Strong Bear | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| NZDUSD | +3 | Bullish | CPI: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURGBP | -3 | Bearish | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| CADJPY | -3 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CHFJPY | -3 | Bearish | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| GBPUSD | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| USDJPY | +2 | Bullish | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDUSD | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURCHF | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURCAD | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| GBPJPY | -2 | Bearish | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPCAD | +1 | Mild Bull | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| AUDJPY | -1 | Mild Bear | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCHF | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPCHF | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CADCHF | 0 | Neutral | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
EURNZD — Strong Bear (-10)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for EURNZD.
NZDCHF — Strong Bull (+8)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDCHF.
NZDCAD — Strong Bull (+8)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDCAD.
EURUSD — Strong Bear (-7)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July has no strong seasonal pattern for EURUSD (avg -0.2%).
EURAUD — Strong Bear (-7)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for EURAUD.
USDCAD — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCAD (avg +0.2%).
EURJPY — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURJPY.
GBPNZD — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPNZD.
AUDCAD — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDCAD.
AUDNZD — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDNZD.
NZDJPY — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for NZDJPY.
USDCHF — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCHF (avg +0.1%).
GBPAUD — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPAUD.
NZDUSD — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
July has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDUSD (avg +0.2%).
EURGBP — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURGBP.
CADJPY — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for CADJPY.
CHFJPY — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for CHFJPY.
GBPUSD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality is historically bearish for GBPUSD (avg -0.5%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
USDJPY — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
July seasonality is historically bullish for USDJPY (avg +0.6%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
AUDUSD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality is historically bullish for AUDUSD (avg +0.4%) — conflicts with the bearish bias.
EURCHF — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for EURCHF.
EURCAD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for EURCAD.
GBPJPY — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPJPY.
GBPCAD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPCAD.
AUDJPY — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDJPY.
AUDCHF — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
July seasonality data unavailable for AUDCHF.
GBPCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for GBPCHF.
CADCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
July seasonality data unavailable for CADCHF.