StraviaX Weekly Report
Forex Macro Bias Report — Week of 3 August 2026
Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 3 August 2026.
Data freshness — Scores calculated 2026-08-09T09:00:13.498+00:00 · COT report 2026-08-04 · Retail sentiment snapshot 2026-08-09 · Central bank rates verified 2026-07-17T12:26:19.314853+00:00.
Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.
| Pair | Score | Bias | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURGBP | +5 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| NZDCHF | +5 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDCAD | +5 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| EURJPY | +4 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| EURCHF | +4 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURCAD | +4 | Strong Bull | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| AUDJPY | -4 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| AUDNZD | -4 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CADJPY | -4 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CHFJPY | -4 | Strong Bear | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| EURUSD | +3 | Bullish | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| USDCAD | +3 | Bullish | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPJPY | -3 | Bearish | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCAD | +3 | Bullish | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| GBPUSD | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDCHF | +2 | Bullish | COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDUSD | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURNZD | +2 | Bullish | Unemployment: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPAUD | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| GBPNZD | -2 | Bearish | COT Positioning: bearish (-1) |
| USDJPY | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURAUD | +1 | Mild Bull | Unemployment: bullish (+1) |
| GBPCAD | +1 | Mild Bull | COT Positioning: bullish (+1) |
| AUDCHF | -1 | Mild Bear | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDJPY | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| NZDUSD | 0 | Neutral | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPCHF | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CADCHF | 0 | Neutral | COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2) |
EURGBP — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURGBP.
NZDCHF — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for NZDCHF.
NZDCAD — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for NZDCAD.
EURJPY — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURJPY.
EURCHF — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURCHF.
EURCAD — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURCAD.
AUDJPY — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDJPY.
AUDNZD — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDNZD.
CADJPY — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for CADJPY.
CHFJPY — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for CHFJPY.
EURUSD — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality is historically bullish for EURUSD (avg +0.5%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
USDCAD — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
August seasonality is historically bearish for USDCAD (avg -0.5%) — conflicts with the bullish bias.
GBPJPY — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPJPY.
AUDCAD — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDCAD.
GBPUSD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bullish (+1)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
August seasonality is historically bullish for GBPUSD (avg +0.7%) — conflicts with the bearish bias.
USDCHF — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bullish (+2)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
August seasonality is historically bearish for USDCHF (avg -0.3%) — conflicts with the bullish bias.
AUDUSD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality is historically bearish for AUDUSD (avg -0.3%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
EURNZD — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- Unemployment: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURNZD.
GBPAUD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPAUD.
GBPNZD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPNZD.
USDJPY — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality is historically bearish for USDJPY (avg -0.5%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
EURAUD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
- Seasonality: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURAUD.
GBPCAD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPCAD.
AUDCHF — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Seasonality: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bullish (+1)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDCHF.
NZDJPY — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- COT Positioning: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for NZDJPY.
NZDUSD — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDUSD (avg -0.2%).
GBPCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPCHF.
CADCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- COT Positioning: strongly bearish (-2)
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sentiment (contrarian): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality data unavailable for CADCHF.