StraviaX Weekly Report
Forex Macro Bias Report — Week of 10 August 2026
Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 10 August 2026.
Data freshness — Scores calculated 2026-08-16T09:00:14.175+00:00 · COT report 2026-08-11 · Retail sentiment snapshot 2026-08-16 · Central bank rates verified 2026-07-17T12:26:19.314853+00:00 · 1 stale macro input(s) excluded.
Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.
| Pair | Score | Bias | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| NZDCAD | +6 | Strong Bull | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDCAD | +5 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURCHF | +4 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURCAD | +4 | Strong Bull | CPI: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDCHF | +4 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CADJPY | -4 | Strong Bear | CPI: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURUSD | +3 | Bullish | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| USDJPY | -3 | Bearish | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURGBP | +3 | Bullish | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURJPY | +3 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| AUDJPY | -3 | Bearish | CPI: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDNZD | -3 | Bearish | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CHFJPY | -3 | Bearish | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| USDCAD | +2 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| NZDUSD | +2 | Bullish | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURNZD | +2 | Bullish | CPI: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPJPY | -2 | Bearish | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPAUD | -2 | Bearish | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| CADCHF | -2 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDCHF | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDUSD | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| EURAUD | +1 | Mild Bull | CPI: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPCAD | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| GBPNZD | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCHF | -1 | Mild Bear | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDJPY | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| GBPUSD | 0 | Neutral | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPCHF | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
NZDCAD — Strong Bull (+6)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for NZDCAD.
AUDCAD — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDCAD.
EURCHF — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURCHF.
EURCAD — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality data unavailable for EURCAD.
NZDCHF — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for NZDCHF.
CADJPY — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for CADJPY.
EURUSD — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality is historically bullish for EURUSD (avg +0.5%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
USDJPY — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality is historically bearish for USDJPY (avg -0.5%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
EURGBP — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURGBP.
EURJPY — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURJPY.
AUDJPY — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDJPY.
AUDNZD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDNZD.
CHFJPY — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for CHFJPY.
USDCAD — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality is historically bearish for USDCAD (avg -0.5%) — conflicts with the bullish bias.
NZDUSD — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
August has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDUSD (avg -0.2%).
EURNZD — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURNZD.
GBPJPY — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPJPY.
GBPAUD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPAUD.
CADCHF — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for CADCHF.
USDCHF — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality is historically bearish for USDCHF (avg -0.3%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
AUDUSD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
August seasonality is historically bearish for AUDUSD (avg -0.3%) — conflicts with the bullish bias.
EURAUD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURAUD.
GBPCAD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPCAD.
GBPNZD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPNZD.
AUDCHF — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDCHF.
NZDJPY — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for NZDJPY.
GBPUSD — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality is historically bullish for GBPUSD (avg +0.7%).
GBPCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPCHF.