StraviaX Weekly Report
Forex Macro Bias Report — Week of 17 August 2026
Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 17 August 2026.
Data freshness — Scores calculated 2026-08-23T09:00:12.789+00:00 · COT report 2026-08-18 · Retail sentiment snapshot 2026-08-19 · Central bank rates verified 2026-07-17T12:26:19.314853+00:00 · 1 stale macro input(s) excluded.
Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.
| Pair | Score | Bias | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUDNZD | -5 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDCHF | +5 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDCAD | +5 | Strong Bull | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURCHF | +4 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURCAD | +4 | Strong Bull | CPI: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDJPY | -4 | Strong Bear | CPI: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURUSD | +3 | Bullish | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| USDJPY | -3 | Bearish | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDUSD | +3 | Bullish | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CADJPY | -3 | Bearish | CPI: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CHFJPY | -3 | Bearish | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| EURAUD | +2 | Bullish | CPI: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPCAD | +2 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| AUDCHF | -2 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCAD | +2 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDJPY | +2 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| GBPUSD | +1 | Mild Bull | CPI: strongly bullish (+2) |
| USDCHF | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURJPY | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| EURNZD | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPJPY | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPCHF | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPNZD | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| AUDUSD | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| USDCAD | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| EURGBP | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| GBPAUD | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| CADCHF | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
AUDNZD — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDNZD.
NZDCHF — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for NZDCHF.
NZDCAD — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for NZDCAD.
EURCHF — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURCHF.
EURCAD — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality data unavailable for EURCAD.
AUDJPY — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDJPY.
EURUSD — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality is historically bullish for EURUSD (avg +0.5%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
USDJPY — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality is historically bearish for USDJPY (avg -0.5%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
NZDUSD — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
August has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDUSD (avg -0.2%).
CADJPY — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for CADJPY.
CHFJPY — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for CHFJPY.
EURAUD — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURAUD.
GBPCAD — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPCAD.
AUDCHF — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDCHF.
AUDCAD — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for AUDCAD.
NZDJPY — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for NZDJPY.
GBPUSD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
August seasonality is historically bullish for GBPUSD (avg +0.7%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
USDCHF — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
August seasonality is historically bearish for USDCHF (avg -0.3%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
EURJPY — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURJPY.
EURNZD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
August seasonality data unavailable for EURNZD.
GBPJPY — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPJPY.
GBPCHF — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPCHF.
GBPNZD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPNZD.
AUDUSD — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality is historically bearish for AUDUSD (avg -0.3%).
USDCAD — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality is historically bearish for USDCAD (avg -0.5%).
EURGBP — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality data unavailable for EURGBP.
GBPAUD — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality data unavailable for GBPAUD.
CADCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
August seasonality data unavailable for CADCHF.