StraviaX Weekly Report

Forex Macro Bias Report — Week of 24 August 2026

Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 24 August 2026.

Data freshness — Scores calculated 2026-08-30T09:00:09.604+00:00 · COT report 2026-08-25 · Retail sentiment snapshot 2026-08-30 · Central bank rates verified 2026-07-17T12:26:19.314853+00:00 · 1 stale macro input(s) excluded.

Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.

PairScoreBiasTop driver
AUDNZD -6 Strong Bear GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
AUDJPY -5 Strong Bear CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
NZDCHF +5 Strong Bull Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
NZDCAD +5 Strong Bull GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
AUDCHF -4 Strong Bear Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
EURUSD +3 Bullish GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
USDJPY -3 Bearish GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
NZDUSD +3 Bullish GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
EURCHF +3 Bullish Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
EURCAD +3 Bullish CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
CADJPY -3 Bearish CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
CHFJPY -3 Bearish Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
AUDUSD -2 Bearish Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
EURAUD +2 Bullish CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
EURNZD -2 Bearish GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
NZDJPY +2 Bullish Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
USDCHF -1 Mild Bear GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
EURGBP +1 Mild Bull GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
GBPJPY -1 Mild Bear GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
GBPCHF -1 Mild Bear GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
GBPNZD -1 Mild Bear GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
GBPUSD 0 Neutral CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
USDCAD 0 Neutral Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
EURJPY 0 Neutral Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
GBPAUD 0 Neutral Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
GBPCAD 0 Neutral Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
AUDCAD 0 Neutral Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
CADCHF 0 Neutral Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)

AUDNZD — Strong Bear (-6)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
  • CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)

August seasonality data unavailable for AUDNZD.

AUDJPY — Strong Bear (-5)

Key drivers

  • CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Unemployment: bearish (-1)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)

August seasonality data unavailable for AUDJPY.

NZDCHF — Strong Bull (+5)

Key drivers

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
  • GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)

Conflicts

  • Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)

August seasonality data unavailable for NZDCHF.

NZDCAD — Strong Bull (+5)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)

Conflicts

  • Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)

August seasonality data unavailable for NZDCAD.

AUDCHF — Strong Bear (-4)

Key drivers

  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)

August seasonality data unavailable for AUDCHF.

EURUSD — Bullish (+3)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)

August seasonality is historically bullish for EURUSD (avg +0.5%) — aligns with the bullish bias.

USDJPY — Bearish (-3)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
  • CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Unemployment: bullish (+1)

August seasonality is historically bearish for USDJPY (avg -0.5%) — aligns with the bearish bias.

NZDUSD — Bullish (+3)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
  • Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)

August has no strong seasonal pattern for NZDUSD (avg -0.2%).

EURCHF — Bullish (+3)

Key drivers

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)

Conflicts

  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)

August seasonality data unavailable for EURCHF.

EURCAD — Bullish (+3)

Key drivers

  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)

Conflicts

No conflicts.

August seasonality data unavailable for EURCAD.

CADJPY — Bearish (-3)

Key drivers

  • CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
  • Unemployment: bullish (+1)

August seasonality data unavailable for CADJPY.

CHFJPY — Bearish (-3)

Key drivers

  • Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
  • CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)

Conflicts

  • Unemployment: bullish (+1)

August seasonality data unavailable for CHFJPY.

AUDUSD — Bearish (-2)

Key drivers

  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
  • GDP: strongly bullish (+2)

August seasonality is historically bearish for AUDUSD (avg -0.3%) — aligns with the bearish bias.

EURAUD — Bullish (+2)

Key drivers

  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Unemployment: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)

August seasonality data unavailable for EURAUD.

EURNZD — Bearish (-2)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)

Conflicts

  • Unemployment: strongly bullish (+2)

August seasonality data unavailable for EURNZD.

NZDJPY — Bullish (+2)

Key drivers

  • Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
  • GDP: strongly bullish (+2)

Conflicts

  • Unemployment: bearish (-1)

August seasonality data unavailable for NZDJPY.

USDCHF — Mild Bear (-1)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)

August seasonality is historically bearish for USDCHF (avg -0.3%) — aligns with the bearish bias.

EURGBP — Mild Bull (+1)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Unemployment: bullish (+1)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
  • CPI: strongly bearish (-2)

August seasonality data unavailable for EURGBP.

GBPJPY — Mild Bear (-1)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)

August seasonality data unavailable for GBPJPY.

GBPCHF — Mild Bear (-1)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Unemployment: bearish (-1)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)

August seasonality data unavailable for GBPCHF.

GBPNZD — Mild Bear (-1)

Key drivers

  • GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)

Conflicts

  • Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Unemployment: bullish (+1)

August seasonality data unavailable for GBPNZD.

GBPUSD — Neutral (0)

Key drivers

  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Unemployment: bearish (-1)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)

Conflicts

No conflicts.

August seasonality is historically bullish for GBPUSD (avg +0.7%).

USDCAD — Neutral (0)

Key drivers

  • Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
  • GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)

Conflicts

No conflicts.

August seasonality is historically bearish for USDCAD (avg -0.5%).

EURJPY — Neutral (0)

Key drivers

  • Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Unemployment: bullish (+1)

Conflicts

No conflicts.

August seasonality data unavailable for EURJPY.

GBPAUD — Neutral (0)

Key drivers

  • Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
  • GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Unemployment: bullish (+1)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)

Conflicts

No conflicts.

August seasonality data unavailable for GBPAUD.

GBPCAD — Neutral (0)

Key drivers

  • Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
  • GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
  • CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Unemployment: bearish (-1)

Conflicts

No conflicts.

August seasonality data unavailable for GBPCAD.

AUDCAD — Neutral (0)

Key drivers

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
  • Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)

Conflicts

No conflicts.

August seasonality data unavailable for AUDCAD.

CADCHF — Neutral (0)

Key drivers

  • Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
  • Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)

Conflicts

No conflicts.

August seasonality data unavailable for CADCHF.