Economic surprise index

This page counts how often each major economy's recent data releases beat, missed or matched forecasts, and lists the latest releases with their actual and forecast figures. Use it to see which economies are surprising positively and which are disappointing, and to check what changed after a busy data week.

01 —— Beats and misses by currency

02 —— Latest scored releases

Why surprises matter more than levels

Markets price expectations. By the time a figure is released, economists' forecasts are already reflected in the exchange rate, so what moves a currency is the gap between the actual number and the forecast. A run of better-than-expected data tends to push a currency up as traders reassess growth and interest-rate prospects; a run of misses does the opposite.

A surprise index turns that idea into a count. Instead of judging each release in isolation, it asks whether an economy has been consistently beating or missing lately, which is a more stable read than any single number.

Beat, miss and inline in plain English

A beat is a release that came in better than forecast for the economy; a miss came in worse. Better is not always higher: for unemployment rates and jobless claims, a lower number than forecast is a beat. These are the inverted indicators.

Inline means the actual figure landed exactly on the forecast. It counts in the window but is neither a beat nor a miss, so an on-forecast CPI print does not drag a currency down. Purchasing managers' indices are judged against the 50 line and the previous reading instead of a forecast: above 50 and rising is a beat, a reading equal to the previous one or exactly 50 is inline, anything else is a miss.

Some releases are not scored at all. If there is no forecast to compare against, the release abstains rather than being guessed. Revisions of data that was already scored, such as a later estimate of the same GDP quarter, count only once: the latest version replaces the earlier one.

Reading the table

The net count is beats minus misses. A strongly positive net means data has been running ahead of expectations; strongly negative means it has been disappointing. The window covers each economy's most recent scoreable releases, so the dates shown tell you how fresh the reading is.

How StraviaX calculates this

For each currency StraviaX looks back up to 90 days at released high- and medium-impact events on the economic calendar, newest first, and keeps the six most recent releases that can be scored under the rules above. The beat, miss and inline counts on this page are counted over those releases.

Prelim, revised and final versions of the same reading are collapsed so only the latest is scored: GDP versions within 75 days of each other, University of Michigan sentiment within 21 days. Benchmark revisions and other restatements abstain.

Inside the scoring model, four or more beats out of the window count as positive momentum and three as mildly positive; misses work the same way in reverse. That momentum comparison between two economies is one input to each pair's headline score. The counts here refresh after each data run.

Frequently asked questions

What is an economic surprise index?

A measure of whether economic data is coming in better or worse than forecasts. This version counts recent beats, misses and inline releases for each major economy.

What counts as an economic data beat or miss?

A beat is better than forecast for the economy, a miss is worse. For unemployment and jobless claims a lower figure is better. Exactly on forecast is inline.

Why is a release missing from the count?

Releases with no forecast are not scored, and later revisions replace earlier versions of the same reading, so each economic observation counts once.

How often does the surprise data update?

After the morning and evening data runs each day, once new results have been collected from the economic calendar.

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For information only, not investment advice. See the disclaimer.