US dollar COT report
This page tracks how speculators are positioned in US Dollar Index futures: the latest net position, the week-on-week change, the split between long and short contracts, and where the current reading sits within the history StraviaX has stored. Use it to see how crowded the dollar trade is before weighing it against the majors.
01 —— Latest positioning
02 —— Weekly history
The contract: US Dollar Index futures (DX)
The US Dollar Index measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, dominated by the euro. The DX futures contract on ICE Futures U.S. is the cleanest single read on speculative dollar sentiment: when non-commercial traders are net long DX, they are positioned for broad dollar strength; net short means they expect the dollar to weaken across the basket.
Because the index is a basket, DX positioning is a blunter instrument than the single-currency contracts. A trader who is bearish the euro but bullish the yen shows up in DX mostly through the euro leg. Read this page as the market's aggregate dollar view, then check the individual currency pages for where that view is concentrated.
What drives speculative dollar positioning
Dollar positioning follows Federal Reserve expectations more than any other single force. When markets price higher-for-longer US rates, speculators add to long dollar positions; when cuts come into view, those positions unwind quickly. The dollar's reserve status adds a second driver: in risk-off episodes, safe-haven demand can push positioning long even when the rate story is neutral.
Positioning also moves on relative growth. A run of strong US data against weak European or Japanese figures pulls speculative money toward the dollar, and the reverse pulls it away. Watch the weekly change as much as the level — a shrinking net long often matters more than the fact that it is still positive.
Reading DX against the majors
Every major pair has the dollar on one side, so DX positioning touches all of them. A heavily long dollar reading implies speculators are short the euro, pound and yen in aggregate; a deeply short reading implies the opposite. When DX positioning reaches the edge of its stored range, the risk of a squeeze — a fast unwind that moves every major pair at once — rises.
Because currency futures are quoted in US dollars per unit of the foreign currency, the lean reads directly onto pairs like EURUSD: a net long futures position is a bullish lean on the pair, a net short position a bearish one. No conversion is needed — what you see above is the direction speculators are positioned for.
How StraviaX uses dollar positioning
Dollar COT feeds the conviction layer on USD pairs. When the macro read on a pair agrees with the direction speculators are positioned, conviction can rise; when the macro read opposes a crowded position, the page treats the crowding itself as information rather than a reason to fade it automatically. The headline score on every pair remains macro-only.
How StraviaX calculates this
The figures come from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, non-commercial (speculative) positions in the listed futures contract. The data is as of Tuesday and published on Friday; this page shows both dates and flags the data as delayed when the latest report is more than ten days old.
The range position compares the current net position only with the history StraviaX has stored (since January 2026; gold since May 2026). It is labelled honestly — "within its range since January 2026" — and is never described as a one-year or three-year extreme until the stored history covers that span.
Inside StraviaX, COT positioning shapes the conviction label on a pair read. It never drives the headline macro score, which is built from rates, growth, inflation, spending, labour data and data surprises.
Frequently asked questions
What is the US dollar COT report?
It is the CFTC's weekly breakdown of who holds US Dollar Index futures. This page shows the non-commercial (speculative) net position, its weekly change and where it sits in stored history.
What does net long DX mean for EURUSD?
The euro dominates the dollar index basket, so a net long DX position usually means speculators are positioned for EURUSD to fall. Check the euro COT page for the direct read.
How often is dollar COT data updated?
The CFTC publishes the data every Friday, as of the previous Tuesday. This page updates after each release and shows both the report date and the release date.
Is extreme dollar positioning a sell signal?
No. A position at the edge of its stored range tells you the trade is crowded, which raises squeeze risk, but crowded trades can run for weeks. It is context for conviction, not a signal.
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For information only, not investment advice. See the disclaimer.