StraviaX Weekly Report
Week of 28 September 2026: EURNZD bearish
Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 28 September 2026.
Data freshness — Scores calculated 2026-09-27T20:00:12.584+00:00 · COT report 2026-09-22 · Retail sentiment snapshot 2026-09-27 · Central bank rates verified 2026-06-23T22:07:30.409157+00:00 · 1 stale macro input(s) excluded.
Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.
| Pair | Score | Bias | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | -9 | Strong Bear | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| EURNZD | -9 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDCAD | +8 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURAUD | -7 | Strong Bear | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDCHF | +6 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURJPY | -6 | Strong Bear | CPI: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDCHF | +6 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDCAD | +6 | Strong Bull | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDUSD | -5 | Strong Bear | CPI: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCAD | +5 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPUSD | -4 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURGBP | -4 | Strong Bear | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| GBPAUD | -4 | Strong Bear | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| CADJPY | -4 | Strong Bear | CPI: strongly bearish (-2) |
| CHFJPY | -4 | Strong Bear | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| USDJPY | +3 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURCHF | -3 | Bearish | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| EURCAD | -3 | Bearish | Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDNZD | -3 | Bearish | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDJPY | -2 | Bearish | CPI: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDJPY | +2 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| NZDUSD | -1 | Mild Bear | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| GBPJPY | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPCAD | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| GBPNZD | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCHF | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPCHF | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CADCHF | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
EURUSD — Strong Bear (-9)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
September seasonality is historically bearish for EURUSD (avg -0.6%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
EURNZD — Strong Bear (-9)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
September seasonality data unavailable for EURNZD.
USDCAD — Strong Bull (+8)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
September seasonality is historically bullish for USDCAD (avg +0.6%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
EURAUD — Strong Bear (-7)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
September seasonality data unavailable for EURAUD.
USDCHF — Strong Bull (+6)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
September seasonality is historically bullish for USDCHF (avg +0.5%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
EURJPY — Strong Bear (-6)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
September seasonality data unavailable for EURJPY.
NZDCHF — Strong Bull (+6)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
September seasonality data unavailable for NZDCHF.
NZDCAD — Strong Bull (+6)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
September seasonality data unavailable for NZDCAD.
AUDUSD — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
September seasonality is historically bearish for AUDUSD (avg -0.5%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
AUDCAD — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
September seasonality data unavailable for AUDCAD.
GBPUSD — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
September seasonality is historically bearish for GBPUSD (avg -0.8%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
EURGBP — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
September seasonality data unavailable for EURGBP.
GBPAUD — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
September seasonality data unavailable for GBPAUD.
CADJPY — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
September seasonality data unavailable for CADJPY.
CHFJPY — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
September seasonality data unavailable for CHFJPY.
USDJPY — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
September seasonality is historically bullish for USDJPY (avg +0.8%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
EURCHF — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
September seasonality data unavailable for EURCHF.
EURCAD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
September seasonality data unavailable for EURCAD.
AUDNZD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
September seasonality data unavailable for AUDNZD.
AUDJPY — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
September seasonality data unavailable for AUDJPY.
NZDJPY — Bullish (+2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: strongly bearish (-2)
September seasonality data unavailable for NZDJPY.
NZDUSD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
September seasonality is historically bearish for NZDUSD (avg -0.4%) — aligns with the bearish bias.
GBPJPY — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
September seasonality data unavailable for GBPJPY.
GBPCAD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
September seasonality data unavailable for GBPCAD.
GBPNZD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
September seasonality data unavailable for GBPNZD.
AUDCHF — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
September seasonality data unavailable for AUDCHF.
GBPCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
September seasonality data unavailable for GBPCHF.
CADCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
September seasonality data unavailable for CADCHF.