StraviaX Weekly Report
Week of 5 October 2026: NZDCAD bullish
Weekly FX macro bias report covering directional pressure, conviction, COT positioning, sentiment, central banks and seasonality across 28 FX pairs for the week of 5 October 2026.
Data freshness — Scores calculated 2026-10-04T20:00:08.082+00:00 · COT report 2026-09-29 · Retail sentiment snapshot 2026-10-04.
Confluence scores identify macro bias and pair selection. They do not generate trade entries or execution signals.
| Pair | Score | Bias | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| NZDJPY | +6 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| NZDCHF | +6 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| NZDCAD | +6 | Strong Bull | GDP: strongly bullish (+2) |
| USDCAD | +5 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURNZD | -5 | Strong Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| USDJPY | +4 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURAUD | -4 | Strong Bear | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDJPY | +4 | Strong Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURUSD | -3 | Bearish | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| USDCHF | +3 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPJPY | +3 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDCAD | +3 | Bullish | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURGBP | -2 | Bearish | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| GBPAUD | -2 | Bearish | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
| AUDNZD | -2 | Bearish | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPUSD | +1 | Mild Bull | CPI: strongly bullish (+2) |
| AUDUSD | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| NZDUSD | +1 | Mild Bull | Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURJPY | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| EURCHF | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| EURCAD | +1 | Mild Bull | CPI: strongly bullish (+2) |
| GBPCAD | +1 | Mild Bull | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| GBPNZD | -1 | Mild Bear | GDP: strongly bearish (-2) |
| AUDCHF | -1 | Mild Bear | Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2) |
| GBPCHF | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CADJPY | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1) |
| CADCHF | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2) |
| CHFJPY | 0 | Neutral | Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1) |
NZDJPY — Strong Bull (+6)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
October seasonality data unavailable for NZDJPY.
NZDCHF — Strong Bull (+6)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
October seasonality data unavailable for NZDCHF.
NZDCAD — Strong Bull (+6)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
October seasonality data unavailable for NZDCAD.
USDCAD — Strong Bull (+5)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
October seasonality is historically bearish for USDCAD (avg -0.3%) — conflicts with the bullish bias.
EURNZD — Strong Bear (-5)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
October seasonality data unavailable for EURNZD.
USDJPY — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
October has no strong seasonal pattern for USDJPY (avg -0.2%).
EURAUD — Strong Bear (-4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
October seasonality data unavailable for EURAUD.
AUDJPY — Strong Bull (+4)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
October seasonality data unavailable for AUDJPY.
EURUSD — Bearish (-3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bullish (+1)
October seasonality is historically bullish for EURUSD (avg +0.3%) — conflicts with the bearish bias.
USDCHF — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
October has no strong seasonal pattern for USDCHF (avg -0.1%).
GBPJPY — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
October seasonality data unavailable for GBPJPY.
AUDCAD — Bullish (+3)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
October seasonality data unavailable for AUDCAD.
EURGBP — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bullish (+2)
October seasonality data unavailable for EURGBP.
GBPAUD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
October seasonality data unavailable for GBPAUD.
AUDNZD — Bearish (-2)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
October seasonality data unavailable for AUDNZD.
GBPUSD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
October seasonality is historically bullish for GBPUSD (avg +0.5%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
AUDUSD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
October seasonality is historically bullish for AUDUSD (avg +0.6%) — conflicts with the bearish bias.
NZDUSD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
October seasonality is historically bullish for NZDUSD (avg +0.5%) — aligns with the bullish bias.
EURJPY — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
October seasonality data unavailable for EURJPY.
EURCHF — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
October seasonality data unavailable for EURCHF.
EURCAD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
October seasonality data unavailable for EURCAD.
GBPCAD — Mild Bull (+1)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
Conflicts
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
October seasonality data unavailable for GBPCAD.
GBPNZD — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): bearish (-1)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
October seasonality data unavailable for GBPNZD.
AUDCHF — Mild Bear (-1)
Key drivers
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bearish (-1)
- Momentum (beats vs misses): strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
October seasonality data unavailable for AUDCHF.
GBPCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- GDP: strongly bearish (-2)
- CPI: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
October seasonality data unavailable for GBPCHF.
CADJPY — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bullish (+1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
October seasonality data unavailable for CADJPY.
CADCHF — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: strongly bullish (+2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bearish (-2)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
October seasonality data unavailable for CADCHF.
CHFJPY — Neutral (0)
Key drivers
- Interest Rate Differential: bearish (-1)
- CPI: strongly bearish (-2)
- Retail Sales: strongly bullish (+2)
- Unemployment: bullish (+1)
Conflicts
No conflicts.
October seasonality data unavailable for CHFJPY.